Why We Need to Think Further Ahead

I’ve been thinking about time lately—not in the existential sense, but in the strategic one.

How far ahead are we looking when we make decisions? More importantly, is our current planning horizon adequate for the world we’re living in?

The uncomfortable answer: probably not.

Our Planning Cycles Are Too Short

In my work as a strategist, I’ve noticed that most organisations operate on quarterly cycles, annual budgets, and five-year strategic plans. This made sense when change happened at a predictable pace, but we’re no longer in that world.

The average time companies stay on the S&P 500 has dropped from 61 years in 1958 to less than 18 years today. Entire industries can be disrupted in months, not decades. Yet we’re still planning like it’s 1995.

Take AI development. Two years ago, most executives saw AI as a distant concern. Today, they’re scrambling to understand how it impacts every aspect of their business. The gap between “future possibility” and “current reality” has collapsed, and our planning cycles haven't caught up.

It’s Not About Predicting the Future

Strategic foresight isn’t about predicting the future – that’s impossible. It’s about developing the cognitive tools to navigate uncertainty and spot patterns before they become evident to everyone else.

The difference is crucial. Trend-spotting is reactive, while foresight is proactive. One identifies what’s already happening, while the other explores what could happen and prepares accordingly.

I remember learning during the early days of social media. By the time Facebook’s impact on traditional marketing was clear to everyone, the competitive advantage of understanding it was gone. The real value came from recognising the shift years earlier, when it was still uncertain and most people dismissed it.

Everything Is Connected Now

What makes strategic foresight essential now isn’t just the pace of change – it’s the compound effects of multiple simultaneous changes.

Climate change intersects with supply chain resilience, AI development intersects with workforce planning, and geopolitical tensions intersect with technology dependencies. These aren’t isolated trends; they’re interconnected systems that amplify each other in ways we’re only beginning to understand.

Traditional strategic planning treats these as separate variables. Foresight recognises them as part of a complex adaptive system where small changes can have massive downstream effects.

Why This Feels So Hard

Here’s where it gets personal: strategic foresight is cognitively demanding. It requires simultaneously considering multiple contradictory possibilities. It means being comfortable with ambiguity and prepared for scenarios you hope never happen.

Our brains resist this. We prefer certainty and linear thinking. We want to know what will happen, not explore what might happen. But that preference for cognitive comfort is becoming a strategic liability.

The organisations and individuals who thrive in the coming decades can think in scenarios, not predictions. They can prepare for multiple futures simultaneously rather than betting everything on a single forecast.

Investing Before You Need It

Strategic foresight requires an investment: in time, resources, and mental models that might never pay off directly. It’s the ultimate long-term bet in a world obsessed with short-term results.

But consider the alternative: being perpetually reactive, always playing catch-up to changes that seemed to come from nowhere but were actually visible to those who knew how to look.

The companies that invested in digital transformation before the pandemic didn’t do it because they predicted COVID-19. They did it because they recognised the underlying forces making digital capabilities essential, regardless of the specific trigger event. But when the pandemic came, they were much better prepared.

Making It Practical

Strategic foresight doesn’t require a crystal ball or a PhD in futures studies. It requires discipline and practice:

Regularly ask, “What would have to be true for this to change dramatically?”

Track weak signals in adjacent industries and disciplines.

Develop multiple scenarios for important decisions, not just best-case projections.

Build organisational capabilities that are robust across different futures, not optimised for a single expected outcome.

Most importantly, accept that some of your foresight investments will seem wasteful – until they suddenly become the most valuable thing you ever did.

Your Next Step

The biggest risk isn’t getting the future wrong. It’s not trying to understand it at all.

In a world where the pace of change continues accelerating, strategic foresight isn’t a nice-to-have capability – it’s becoming a core competency for survival. The organisations and individuals who develop it will have a massive advantage over those who don’t.

The question isn’t whether you can afford to invest in strategic foresight. It’s whether you can afford not to.

The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet. Your job is to find it before everyone else does.