How our biased brains impact what we think of the future
Planning for a future we know nothing about.
One thing I’ve been thinking about a lot lately is research showing that we tend to underestimate future changes and overestimate past changes.
If you look back 10 or 20 years, you will see many things that have changed. But if you estimate how much that will change in the upcoming 10 or 20 years, you will underestimate how much will change in that same period.
We assume we will be the same person in 10 years that we are today, but we also realise that the person we were 10 years ago is no longer who we are today.
We assume the world will be the same in 10 years as it is today, but we also realise that the world 10 years ago is long gone.
With quite a few close friends making big decisions about work and life, I’m constantly reminded of the fallacy that we tend to believe we will always want what we want now.
The challenge is to plan for a future we don’t know.
Most big life-altering changes are accidental. Maybe you tag along to an event you didn’t know about, you lose your job and start a business, or a pandemic forces you to rethink.
Sure, it can be planned things like having kids, or changing jobs, or moving cities. But unexpected changes usually have the greatest impact. When new opportunities derail your current path entirely, you either have to create a new one or get stuck until you do.
The world forces you to let go of the things that no longer serve you along the way: the ideas, the things, the relationships.
And yes, it might be painful, scary, or sad, but I also feel like the people who dare to reinvent themselves are more interesting and happier.
People with perfect CVs make me very sceptical.
This summer, I remember a conversation with my friend Mervi, a leadership and start-up coach (whom I would recommend to anyone looking for a coach). I complained about being someone who always reflects on my life and constantly changes things, because it feels very impractical when you’re in the middle of it. Wouldn’t it be simpler to think less and go on with the status quo?
And she said something like “I used to think so too, that reflecting less made for a simpler, happier life”. But then she continued, “But when I meet these people in coaching, I realise that they don’t know how to make simple changes about their own situation, even when they are miserable.”
That comment stuck with me.
Short periods of turmoil vs. an unhappy life?
I know what I’d pick.
Is it complicated to explain in a CV? For sure.
Is it exhausting in the moment? Absolutely.
But at least I will live an interesting life. And I can look back and feel that I was observant and brave enough to change when the world around me changed.
Because all we know is that the next 10 years will be at least as eventful as the previous 10 years. Don’t stop moving.
Anna
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