Four scenarios for the world in 2045
Or, let's be more like Finland
Did you know that Finland has a government agency dedicated solely to the future? Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund, has the task of understanding what signals and scenarios are on the horizon and ensuring the rest of the country is aware.
Since I know they are doing it methodologically, I was very curious to learn that the government of Finland have just released the first part of their new report, “Government Report on the Future”. It outlines four scenarios for 2045, along with the paths that lead to each of them — highly relevant for anyone trying to understand where we are heading.
The report presents a comprehensive view of the strategic environment, containing 26 geopolitical, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legislative drivers of change that will impact Finland’s future.
It also highlights the uncertainties related to the development of the operating environment: 14 critical uncertainties and their alternative trajectories leading up to 2045.
There are four scenarios, creating systemic overviews for the year 2045 and the trajectories leading up to them:
- World of Cooperation
- World of Tech Giants
- World of Blocs
- Crumbling World
All scenarios have been assessed for their scenario-specific impacts (risks/threats and opportunities), along with preparedness measures and actions to enhance Finland’s readiness for the future, regardless of the scenario.
Pretty cool.
While Finland is a small country in Scandinavia, many of the findings in the report are applicable wherever you are in the world or whatever you do.
The fact that Finland is now providing us a set of thirty focus areas and actions to take, which are relevant for all four scenarios, is an invaluable guide in terms of what we should prioritise both at work and in life in general.
Geopolitics
- The EU’s and Europe’s role in politics and the economy, as well as a security and defence actor, must be developed with determination.
- Strong measures to strengthen and develop the rules-based multilateral international system.
- Maintain Finland as a capable and reliable ally, partner, and actor both in its neighbouring regions and globally.
- Sustain and develop a strong national defence within NATO’s collective defence and national security in the long term.
- Improve crisis resilience across all sectors and levels of society in line with the comprehensive security model and the principle of total defence.
Technology
- Major investments in identifying and preventing misinformation and disinformation, as well as in strategic communication.
- Efforts to generate sustainable growth in digitalisation, the data economy, and disruptive technologies.
- Active influence on international regulations and standards, as well as EU regulation of digitalisation, the data economy, and disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence, space technology, and biotechnology.
- Develop cybersecurity and cyber defence to withstand the new threats and opportunities arising from geopolitical change and disruptive technologies.
- Develop comprehensive, cross-sectoral, and interdisciplinary foresight work on disruptive technology.
Society
- The population’s level of education and competence must be raised.
- More measures for a more family-friendly society and a higher birth rate, as well as to ensure that society, as the population ages, can maintain sufficient basic security and services that meet people’s needs.
- Safeguard the position of science in every way.
- Efforts to strengthen sustainable wellbeing and public confidence in the future.
- Ensure regional fairness and equal treatment of the population to strengthen social cohesion.
Economy
- Stronger public finances to safeguard future generations’ opportunities for welfare.
- Long-term support in industrial policy and RDI policy, particularly for the development of technologies, products, and solutions that promote productivity, security, and the green transition, as well as their implementation for stronger value chains.
- More cooperation to promote the circular economy, as well as new legislation and financial instruments for the circular economy and material use.
- The labour market must take seriously the ongoing rapid transformation of work and working life.
- Sustainable efforts to promote labour- and education-related immigration.
Environment
- Planned and extensive measures for the sustainability transition.
- Prevent climate change and invest in climate adaptation.
- Halt biodiversity loss and prevent environmental pollution.
- The consumption of natural resources must become sustainable.
- Ensure the sustainability and fairness of the green transition.
Legislation
- The rule of law must be strengthened, and a stronger basis for a society of trust is needed.
- Prevent and combat structural corruption in society.
- Fundamental freedoms and rights must be ensured in digitalisation and the use of artificial intelligence.
- Strengthen foresight and a knowledge-based approach in legislative drafting.
- Effective legislative drafting must be based on impact assessments and factual evidence.
These are all important; you cannot cherry-pick a few and expect it to work out. Biodiversity and education are as crucial as corruption and the economy to ensure we have resilient societies and thriving humans in all four scenarios.
I wish every country did reports this comprehensive. It would help create a shared national project in a fragmented time.
Until then, we can all learn from Finland. And ensure we work on building the future we want, even if we cannot control all the things going on around us.
/Anna
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